Intime Resources (000975) 2019Q2 results increase: Gold prices increase overlapping Dachaidan resumes production to drive high growth Maintain Recommended rating

Intime Resources (000975) 2019Q2 results increase: Gold prices increase overlapping Dachaidan resumes production to drive high growth Maintain “Recommended” rating
Core points: 1.The event company released the 2019 semi-annual report performance forecast, the company expects to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of 2019.2-4.50,000 yuan, an increase of 54 in ten years.03% -65.03%; realized profitability of about 0.2145-0.2298 yuan, an increase of 56% -67 in ten years.13%.  2.Our Analysis and Judgment (I) Rising gold prices and the start-up of Qinghai Dachaidan boosted the company’s performance. As the volume and price of gold business rose, the company’s net profit increased significantly.During the reporting period, the Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes and released a signal of interest rate cuts due to increasing uncertainties in the outlook for the US economic development, which caused the international gold price in 2019 to rise from $ 1285 in the early period to 1412 at the end of June.5 USD / GBP, domestic gold price from 288.3 yuan / gram rose to 316.85 yuan / gram.The average price of gold in the first half of 2019 was 289.59 yuan / gram, up 5.6% and 5.88%.In addition, the company’s Dahaidan mine in Qinghai (the amount of gold resources reached 53.05 tons, average grade 4.12g / t) was put into production in April, making the company’s mineral gold output increase compared with the same period of the previous year. It is expected that the Dahaidan Mine in Qinghai will be realized in 2019.6-1.The output of 7 tons of gold has become the supplementary amount of the company’s mineral gold production.The increase in gold prices combined with the release of mineral gold output has driven a significant release of the company’s performance.  (2) The Fed ‘s interest rate cut expectations are strengthened, which is positive for the uncertainty of the upward trend in the price of gold in the US economy, which has kept the price of gold rising this year.  Fed Chairman Powell said in the latest congressional testimony that the US economic outlook has not improved since the Fed ‘s interest rate meeting in June, and the uncertainty surrounding trade tensions and the rapid pace of global economic growth have responded to pressure on the U.S. economic outlook., Denied the prospect of a change in non-farm employment data in June that may lower interest rates.At the same time, fatigue fatigue may be more persistent than currently expected.Such a “dove” statement has raised the market ‘s expectations of the Federal Reserve ‘s interest rate cuts again. According to CME, the probability of the Federal Reserve ‘s interest rate cuts in July is 100%, and the probability of three interest rate cuts at the end of December has once again become the mainstream market expectation, which suppresses the actual yield of US Treasuries.Rates and the US dollar index support the rise in gold prices.It is expected that in the second half of 2019, the United States will cut interest rates and enter a new round of monetary easing, which will help gold prices to rise in the medium and long term.  (3) Incentives for employee shareholding plans and expansion of prospecting will consolidate the foundation for the company’s future growth This year, the company announced the first phase of the employee shareholding plan budget and revised draft, raising a total of about 2 funds.1.4 billion, the total number of employees participating in the shareholding plan is 45, of which 11 are directors, supervisors and senior management, and 34 are key personnel.The lock-up period is 1 year and the duration is 2 years.The employee stock ownership plan establishes a link between the company’s performance and the core employee’s interests, which helps release the enthusiasm of the employees and is beneficial to the company’s long-term development.  The company’s mine technological transformation project helps endogenous growth.The technical transformation of the mining system of Yulong Mining has a maximum lifting capacity of 3500 tons / day. As of the end of 2018, all shafts have been bottomed. Except for the main shaft tower, other shaft equipment has been installed and entered the commissioning stage.Before the completion of safety acceptance intervention use.Heihe Yintai’s open-pit to underground mine project is expected to reach the end of 2019. At the same time, it will overlap the expansion and reconstruction of the Dongan Gold Mine. The ore processing capacity will reach 1,200 tons / day, and it will add the advantages of Heihe high-grade ore, the company’s performance and gross profit margin.The water level has been further improved.In 2018, the Jilin Banmiao Subproject completed the completion of the tailings pond heightening project and the 80-year / year capacity expansion project. Upon completion of the underground development project, the mine mining and processing capacity will be increased by 7 to 80 years / year.Mineral grades will also gradually increase.  Prospecting and increasing reserves support future development.Yulong Mining has four exploration rights, and the exploration scope of exploration rights reaches 41.11 square kilometers. In 2018, the total amount of proven silver metal was 1,818 tons. The resource part of the prospecting area is estimated to be evaluated, and there may be reserves in the future.Heihe Yintai, Jilin Banmiaozi and Qinghai Dachaidan have a total of nine gold exploration licenses. The exploration scope of the exploration right is about 260 square kilometers.Underground prospecting projects in Qinglongtan and Xijinggou, Dachaidan, Qinghai continued, and the prospecting right retained 35 of the gold metal resources.28 tons.  3.The investment proposal benefited from the increase in gold prices and the resumed production of Dahaidan Mining in Qinghai. The company’s performance in the reporting period improved significantly.The company’s technological transformation in existing mines, new 杭州桑拿养生会所 mines put into operation, and the strategic layout of exploration and increase reserves are clear. It is expected that the company’s mineral gold output will continue to increase in the next few years.As the global economy enters a downward phase of resonance, countries will re-enter monetary easing, overlapping the Federal Reserve ‘s recent dovish statement, and further strengthening the market ‘s expectations for the rise of gold, silver and other precious metal price centers.The increase in the price of precious metals and the company’s output are steadily progressing. The company’s future performance is flexible under the rise in both volume and price.We expect the company’s EPS to be zero in 2019-2020.52/0.65 yuan, corresponding to the PE of 27x / 22x in 2019-2020, maintaining the “recommended” level.  4.Risk warnings 1) The price of gold and silver has fallen sharply; 2) The Federal Reserve has restarted the process of raising interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet; 3) The company’s mining and technological transformation projects have been put into operation