Juneyao Airlines (603885): Q4 Seat Receipt Improved, Waiting for Widebody to Operate Intercontinental Airways
A brief evaluation of the company’s 2018 revenue of 143.
700 million, an increase of 15.
8%, net profit attributable to mother 12.
300 million, down 7.
0%, deducting non-attributed net profit 9.
4 trillion, down 19.
1%; Q4 single-quarter revenue of 32.
500 million, an increase of 19.
1%, net profit attributable to mother -2.
0 billion, 0 in the same period last year.
Operational analysis The capacity of the international line Q4 has resumed growth, and the growth rate of the off-season revenue level has increased: Shanghai’s main base in Q4 2018 is still tense at both moments, and the company’s domestic line ASK increased by 9.
9% (Q3 also increased by 11.
6%). However, after the shipwreck in Thailand severely reduced the capacity of the international line, the company began to redeploy the capacity of the international line. The Q4 international line ASK also increased by 3.
5% (Q3 decreased by 26.
1%), the overall ASK of Q4 companies increased by 9.
2% (Q3 also increased by 5.
It will take time for the international line to recover, and the Q4 international line RPK will still be interrupted at least 0.
8%, the load factor decreased by 3.
5pct, domestic performance is slightly better, RPK increased by 9.
3%, the load factor decreased by 0.
4pct, the overall RPK increased by 9.
2%, the load factor decreased by 0.
The increase in Q4 income level is obvious, or due to the stabilization of international airline fares, and domestic airlines once again increase the full fare.
We estimate that the Q4 unit-kilometer income increased by 9 as well.
1%, higher than Q1-Q3 of 3.
6%. In the future, we believe that it will take time for the main base Shanghai to relax at two moments, and the B737max grounding incident will continue to affect the industry supply, and the company’s performance improvement will continue.
Waiting for B787 to operate intercontinental routes: The company introduced the widebody B787 in Q4, with a load factor of 89.
1%, higher than 85 of A320 series aircraft.
0%, and passenger kilometers yield 0.
6 yuan, which is also higher than 0 for A320.
But the B787 currently only uses 8.
In 7 hours, the highest execution efficiency and higher operating costs led to the company’s 2018 unit oil deduction cost to increase by 8%, Q4 deducted non-net profit -2.
700 million, 0 in the same period last year.
It is expected that after the implementation of the long-haul intercontinental flight by the B787, the company’s revenue level and operating efficiency will be further improved, and the advantages of the wide-body aircraft and Shanghai will be fully utilized.
Participate in mutual increase with Eastern Airlines + continue to date wide-body aircraft to accumulate power for the future: Juneyao Airlines and its major shareholder Junyao Group will subscribe for Eastern Airlines13 in total.
400 billion shares and 5.
300 million Hong 上海夜网论坛 Kong stocks are set to increase. At the same time, the company will increase its investment in China Eastern Airlines to form a strategic partnership to promote improvements in the operating environment of the Shanghai market and obtain more stable returns.
In addition, the company will continue to introduce B787 to reach the scale of 10 aircraft, which will become a new growth point for the company’s performance.
On the whole, the company’s current asset quality is good, and the asset-liability ratio is stable. In future route expansion, it is necessary to take into account route connection, improve aircraft utilization and reduce operating costs.
The investment proposal makes full use of the resources of the two high-quality moments in Shanghai + the introduction of wide-body aircraft + the opening of Jiuyuan International Airline to become the company’s future performance growth point.
The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is predicted to be 0.
39 yuan, corresponding PE is 17 times / 13 times / 11 times, respectively, give a “buy” rating.
Risks indicate that oil prices have risen faster than expected, wide-body machines have failed to operate as expected, and safety accidents have broken through.