Conch Cement (600585): High-quality blue-chip leader with outstanding cash cow attributes
Event: Recently, the company announced its 2019 semi-annual report. In 19H1, the company’s revenue was 71.6 billion, which was +56 in the past.
6%; net profit attributable to mothers is 15.3 billion, annual +17.
9%; EPS is 2.
The company’s second-quarter revenue was $ 41.1 billion, +52 for the year.
5%; net profit attributable to mother is 9.2 billion, +12 in ten years.
Comments: 19H1 real estate infrastructure demand is still strong, the company’s volume and price rose, continue to strengthen trade sales.
1) The growth rate of 19H1 land construction area continued to increase, and the demand for cement at the infrastructure end picked up. Affected by this, the company’s total net sales of 19H1 cement clinker was 2.
2 billion tons, of which 1 is self-produced and sold.
4.6 billion tons per year.
0%, basically matching the growth rate of industry demand (19H1 national cement output growth rate was 6.
2) We believe that under the environment of good industry demand, peak shifts, environmental protection, and synergy continue to play a role in cement prices. The unit price of cement clinker in 19H1 company is 330 yuan, each time +19 yuan; the cost per ton exceeds +8 yuan.It is estimated that the cost of raw materials and labor will rise mainly; gross profit per ton is 155 yuan, +10 yuan each time.
3) The company’s trade sales volume in 19H1 was 5,600 initially, with trade revenue of 19.7 billion, accounting for 27% of total revenue.
5%, gross margin is 0.
16%, with limited impact on earnings.
Affected by this, the growth rate of revenue in 19H1 significantly exceeded the growth rate of net profit.
4) Except for cement clinker business, the company’s aggregate revenue in 19H1 was about 4.
6 ppm, previously + 33%, gross margin was 68.
6% a year -2.
5 points, profit level performance is expected.
The cost per ton is basically stable, and the net profit per ton continues to hit a new high.
1) According to the calculation of self-production and sales, the company’s 19H1 ton cost (tax, three fees) is about 29 yuan, which is +1 yuan in a row. There is a cash surplus in hand and the company’s financial costs that continue to decline continue to decline, and the financial costs per ton are ten-3.
2) The net profit of 19H1 ton is about 107 yuan, +10 yuan in ten years, continuing to hit a record high.
The balance sheet continued to be optimized with strong cash cow attributes.
The company’s combined capital expenditure is limited and its operating cash flow is merged. In the second quarter of 2019, the asset-liability ratio dropped by 19%. We believe that the company has been the basis for high dividends for a long time, and also has the strong ability of cross-industry chain cross integration.
The company’s 四川耍耍网 internationalization is progressing smoothly, domestic mergers and acquisitions integration is advancing steadily, and industrial chain integration is continuously promoted.
1) In terms of internationalization, the company ‘s shareholders ‘meeting announced that the 13th Five-Year Plan will have an overseas cement capacity of 5,000 tons, which will be the main source of the company ‘s new capacity in the future.”All the way”, the Group continued to strengthen overseas research and demonstration and reserve project carriers.
Domestically, we expect that the future development path will be dominated by mergers and acquisitions, and the company’s early secondary market will increase its shareholding in western cement to about 21.
11%, and subsequent cooperation in the western market is worth looking forward to.
In 19H1, the company added 230 cement production capacity, 200 aggregate production capacity and 600,000 square meters of commercial concrete production capacity.
2) Since 18Q4, the company’s purchase and construction of fixed assets, cash payments for intangible assets and other long-term assets have picked up. The company continues to promote the integration of the industrial chain, extending from the main cement clinker business to upstream and downstream industries such as aggregate and concrete.
The company plans a capital expenditure of USD 10 billion in 2019 for project construction, energy conservation and environmental protection, technological transformation and M & A project expenditure. The company is expected to increase the clinker production capacity by about 400 tons (excluding M & A) and aggregate (including mechanical sand) production capacity by 1,700.mortality rate.
Maintain “Highest Market” rating.
The company is a high-quality blue-chip cement leader with obvious advantages in cost and cost control. In 2019, we expect that the company will have limited new capacity in the region. The new high-value-added construction in the early stage will gradually move away from the support for cement demand, and the company strives to maintain a high profit level.
What do we expect the company 2019?EPS in 2021 will be about 6.
49 yuan for the 2019 PE 8?
10 times, reasonable value range 49.
Demand exceeded expectations, coal prices rose sharply, and internationalization progress fell short of expectations.