Great Wall Motor’s (601633) December sales review: Mo wins for the cloud system

Great Wall Motor’s (601633) December sales review: Mo wins for the cloud system
The short-term wholesale is weaker than the retail, and the inventory level is reasonably controlled. The company’s December wholesale sales totaled 10.600,000 units, at least -20.8% (ten years at retail +7.5%), overall lower than expected.At the beginning of 2019, the company gradually sold 1.06 million units, +0 throughout the year.7% (ten years at retail +5.3%), basically in line with expectations.As the Spring Festival was earlier this year, the company continued the idea of controlling the inventory level of the main shaft. The wholesale incidental period was low throughout November-December, but the terminal retail performance was excellent (+47 compared with the previous quarter).7%), which is also to create a better inventory environment for sprint sales in 2020. The previous disturbances were relatively controllable, and the other highlights of the chain structure were only a fraction. The poor short-term wholesale data was mainly caused by the disturbance of low-price range products. The H2, H4, and F5 models were less than 11 times.Weakened forces, with a total sales of less than 4,000 units, a decrease of more than 80% compared with the same period last year. In 2020, with the new platform architecture driving the restructuring of the product matrix, the problem of stalls between M6 and H6 will be completely 天津夜网 resolved.Momentum coefficient, the company’s wholesale sales in December compared with the previous November average of 7.9%, but the growth momentum of key models is still continuing, of which M6 sales1.90,000 units (+19 from the chain.7%), with more than 7,000 shells sold (+12 from the previous month).2%), V6 and H9 are maintained at a higher central level. The Q4 performance risk is relatively small, and the medium and long-term volume and price elasticity can be expected to take into account Q4 sales in 2019 of 33.60,000 units, but the subdivision structure continues to be optimized. We expect that the net profit attributable to mothers will remain around 14 million in a single quarter (Q3 QoQ), corresponding to a nominal profit of 6,000 yuan for bicycles. At the same time, taking into account year-end expenses, financial 无锡桑拿网 contributions andIncremental point erosion.Looking forward to 2020-2022, we are optimistic about the company’s ability to bear the combined system of cost, quality, marketing, and technology, which will smoothly drive global sales to 1.7 million units and return profits to the order of 10 billion yuan. Earnings forecast and investment rating: Q4 sales are expected to exceed expectations. We lower our 2019 earnings forecast to US $ 4.3 billion and maintain a profit of US $ 6.5 / 8.5 billion in 2020/2021, corresponding to 19/13/10 times the current total PE.We believe that at least the emission standard switching stall in May-August 2019. The current sales slump in November-December is the starting point of a new cycle. It is impossible to look at the clouds, the system is winning, and the “buy” level is maintained. Risk warning: the macroeconomic growth rate exceeds expectations; the growth of the passenger car market is weak; the sales of new models climb less than expected; the profitability of bicycles rebounds more than expected.