Zhengbang Technology (002157) Annual Report Comments: The rapid growth of the number of listings, the cycle reversal is extremely flexible

Zhengbang Technology (002157) Annual Report Comments: The rapid growth of the number of listings, the cycle reversal is extremely flexible

Key Investment Events: Zhengbang Technology announced its 2018 annual report.

The company achieved revenue of 221 in 2018.

1.3 billion (+7.

27%), net profit attributable to mother 1.

9.3 billion (-63.

21%), after deducting non 2.

2.3 billion (-57.

59%).

Among them, the fourth quarter: the company’s revenue was 45.

2.8 billion (+28.

64%), net profit attributable to mother 1.

5.8 billion (+34.

60%), after deducting non 1.

5.9 billion (+32.

20%).

The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0 for every 10 shares.

4 yuan.

In the first quarter of 2019, revenue was 51.

9.4 billion (+4.

74%), net profit attributable to mothers can be reduced.

1.4 billion (-743.

42%), doubt after deduction 3.
.

5.9 billion (-622.

86%).

The number of listings is increasing rapidly, the cost trend is decreasing, and the dispersion of production capacity is relatively less affected by the epidemic.

In 2018, the company sold 5.54 million pigs, an increase of 62% year-on-year.

The company’s production capacity is relatively wide, and it is relatively affected by swine fever. It is estimated that 5.24 million pigs will be slaughtered throughout the year, with an average price of about 12.

47 yuan / kg, the full cost is about 12.

51 yuan / kg, heads can accept 1.

1 yuan, fat pigs are expected to be about 0.

0.6 billion.

It is expected that the number of piglets on the market will be 320,000, with an average profit of 89 yuan, and the piglets will earn 南京桑拿网 about 0.

300 million.

Initial farming is estimated to contribute a profit of 0.

2 trillion, feed, pesticide, veterinary medicine estimated net profit is about 1.

8 billion.

This year, government subsidies have decreased, and non-current asset disposal has resulted in gains and losses. In 2018, non-recurring gains and losses were -0.
300 million.
Steady growth is progressing steadily and is expected to support rapid expansion.

The company plans to increase US $ 10 million for the development of hog breeding business and repayment of bank loans. At present, it has responded to the feedback from the CSRC.

In recent years, the company is in a period of rapid expansion. In the first quarter of 2019, the asset-liability ratio was 69%, and financial expenses increased. If the increase is expected, it is expected to support rapid expansion in the future.

According to the company’s assets, we expect that the number of listings in 2019 is expected to reach 8 million heads.

The worst quarterly report for the first quarter of 2019 has passed, and the future performance is huge.

Affected by the epidemic, the company increased its expenditure on biosafety prevention and control in the first quarter, and related costs exceeded US $ 100 million. The cost end was penetrated by the impact, resulting in a decrease in quarterly reports.

1.4 billion.

The company produced 1.69 million live pigs in 2019Q1, and 1.63 million fat pigs are expected to be sold at an average sales price of 11.

2 yuan / kg, the full cost of 13.

5 yuan / kg, heads are expected to 253 yuan, fat pigs about 4 in advance.

100 million; piglets are expected to be released 5.

80,000 heads, with an average price of 28.

5 yuan / kg, piglets are marginal.

The quarterly report is the worst time for the industry and the company.

The epidemic situation has caused the industry’s production capacity to exceed historical extremes, and there is a general shortage of pigs in the country. Pig prices are expected to reach a record high.

The de-capacity of the industry is accelerating, and the pig price is expected to increase after 2019Q2.

After the holiday, the price of pigs in the North has recovered, the epidemic situation in the South has intensified, and retail investors are still sluggish.

In March, the number of live pigs on the market was reduced by 19% and 21%, which was a record high in February. In recent months, the sales volume of feed for pigs can be reduced by about 10-15%.The sales volume of piglet feed is about to double by about 15-20%. We expect the inventory to drop or further decline in the next two months. From Q2 2019, pig prices are expected to usher in a second wave of rapid growth.

Investment suggestion: The company’s listing will grow rapidly, the cost trend will decline, and the profit of other sectors will be stable.

At present, the low price of pigs has passed, and the cycle shift has shifted to the right. The company’s performance is very flexible.

We adjusted the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to 0.

88, 3.

23, 4.

01 yuan, based on the closing price on April 19, 2019, the corresponding PE is: 21.

7, 5.

9,4.

7x, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: epidemic risk, fluctuation in pig prices, less than expected production volume, rising raw material prices.

Xiang Piao Piao (603711) In-depth Report: Opening a New Growth Cycle

Xiang Piao Piao (603711) In-depth Report: Opening a New Growth Cycle
The report guide company has entered the stage of product upgrading and marketing channel intensive development, redundant development momentum. Key points of investment will usher in a period of rapid rise in net profit. The company’s revenue has continued to grow by two figures since 2016. We predict that the company’s revenue growth will reach 22%, 27%, and 19% in 2018-2020.The expansion of the scale will usher in a period of rapid rise in net profit.We are optimistic about the company’s achievements in reshaping its brand power, motivating management teams, optimizing marketing strategies, targeting mainstream price bands, and deepening its marketing network. Products with a price band of 5-6 yuan will usher in a period of rapid growth. The company reshaped the brand by repositioning the old products and increasing marketing efforts. The new and old products are in line with the mainstream price bands 成都桑拿网 of the market for key marketing and layout, which effectively drivesThe average price of the company cup, especially sales volume, has increased rapidly.The new fruit juice tea selects school channels that are easy to disseminate, easy to weigh, and low in cost as marketing breakthroughs, and have high market acceptance.At present, the mainstream price band of the beverage market has moved up to 5-6 yuan / cup. The average price of the company’s juice tea and delicious series is in this price range, and our expected sales volume will help maintain rapid growth. There is still a lot of room for market penetration. Through optimizing marketing strategies, the company’s seven major sales regions have recovered positive revenue across the board since 2016, and the three major markets have contributed significantly.The company 武汉夜生活网 improves the performance of dealer doors, and is committed to promoting the “three specialties” and increasing the volume of dealers to expand the company’s revenue scale.We predict that the company’s regional penetration rate at the county level is only around 40%. The company will continue to expand its penetration rate by deepening the main market demand and exploring low-line markets. Profit forecast and estimation According to our analysis and forecast, we forecast that the company will achieve operating income separately in 2018-2020.08 billion, 40.7.6 billion and 48.5.9 billion yuan, corresponding to net profit attributable to mothers3.04 billion, 3.8.1 billion and 4.$ 76 trillion, an annual increase of 14.84%, 25.48%, 25.10%, corresponding to EPS per share of 0.76, 0.95, 1.19 yuan.The current sustainable corresponding PE for 2019-2020 is 22 times and 17 times respectively.The upgrade level is “Buy”. Risk factors: 1. The cost of ingredients continues to increase; 2. The cost of packaging materials increases significantly; 3. The significant increase in advertising and marketing costs has brought corresponding revenue growth.

A-share single-day market value evaporates 1.

How long can the 1 trillion infrastructure stocks tragically protect-

A-share single-day market value evaporates 1.

How long can 1 trillion infrastructure stocks hold up?

Original title: A-share single-day market value evaporates 1.

The 1 trillion Shanghai Stock Index has fallen again!

How long can the tragic support of infrastructure stocks last?

  Source: The website of the financial industry surpassed one trillion trading volumes for six consecutive trading days, withdrawn northbound funds for four consecutive trading days (nearly 4 billion net interest 深圳桑拿网 rates today), and the market value of stocks per day has evaporated by nearly 1.

1 trillion, did the wolf really come this time?

  In the background of the generally green world of Europe, America, and the Asia-Pacific market, A-shares today performed a completely opposite market. Yesterday, the Shanghai stock index fell 3,000 points, and the stunning clip of the GEM index falling more than 4% was fixed to today’s closing time.

  The performance of the A-share roller coaster for two consecutive days scared Li Daxiao, who had previously chanted “3000 points have been welded”. After announcing “formal welding” yesterday, today he announced the view of “thousand-strength steel bar 3,000 points horizon”.

But today I am afraid that the performance of A shares will make him and 1.

600 million shareholders were disappointed.
.
.
.
.
  New and old infrastructure tragic support plate 3000 points Where do you stand?

  From the perspective of the disk, the old infrastructure represented by engineering construction, and the new infrastructure represented by the radio and television department, have become the important main force of today’s Shanghai Index guarding 3,000 points.

Taking the daily limit as an example, the engineering and construction sector had 12 shares, and the radio and television department also had 6 shares.

  According to the latest news, recently, Beijing, Fujian Province, Yunnan Province, Henan Province, Jiangsu Province and other places have released a list of major project investment plans for 2020, including 3 in Fujian Province.

84 trillion, 3 in Yunnan Province.

6 trillion, Henan 3.

3 trillion, a total of 10.

The 74 trillion yuan project alone caused fractures for everyone to watch. Because of the way out of the 2008 economic crisis, the four trillion yuan stimulus method has made great contributions.

Today, the body weight of only three provinces exceeds the national scale of that year, “2.

The “four trillion stimulus in version 0” is not always coming.

  For the radio and television department, the release of the “National Cable TV Network Integrated Development Implementation Plan” is the biggest positive. The document proposes that China Radio and Television will take the lead in cooperating with the Provincial Network Company and strategic investors to form the China Radio and Television Network Joint Stock Company.Web integration.

At the same time, a 5G network with radio and television characteristics will be established to realize the integrated development of “one national network” and 5G.

Ensure that the provincial network company enters the joint-stock company at the end of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” and at the same time require the completion of “one province, one network” integration.

Some institutions predict that the State Grid, Broadcasting and Television will invest 100 billion yuan in new infrastructure in three years.

  Although the 100 billion scale of the radio and television system is far from the super 10 trillion scale of the old infrastructure, the voice of optimism and even the standing of the new and old infrastructure is endless.

  China National Securities believes that in the context of relatively weak current demand, stimulating effective demand and stabilizing employment have become the focus of current policy efforts.

In the critical period of China’s economic structural transformation, the transitional department will not adhere to the old road of “high energy consumption and low efficiency” and will support more new industries and new economies.

A clear point of active fiscal policy is the new infrastructure, which can hedge the current economic pressure, support the economy, and transform the economic structure.

  CITIC Construction Investment Securities Zhang Yulong said in an interview with the financial industry website that fiscal policy is mainly “focusing on key areas, optimizing local government special bond investment, making good use of investment within the central budget, mobilizing enthusiasm for private investment, and accelerating the scale of construction.project.

“In fact, aside from the epidemic situation, infrastructure investment was originally a definite option in 2020. The epidemic situation has catalyzed the effect. After the resumption of work, infrastructure-related industries are expected to accelerate and accelerate.

  Technology stocks crash, two big empty institutions “snugging”?

  Compared to the tragic 3,000 points of the old and new infrastructure guards, the Saviour’s technology sector became the hardest hit area yesterday, with domestic chips, gallium nitride, Huawei and other concept stocks lying down.

  Huatai Securities, which gave CITIC Construction Investment a “sell” rating last year, and CITIC Securities, which ran short of PICC, all showed a hint of the current trend.
CITIC Securities believes that the first round of “filling pits” in A shares this year is mainly driven by loose liquidity, and after the various signals are clear, its subsequent kinetic energy will tend to decline, and the market will also enter a period of peace.

A shares are still in the middle of the “well-off bull” channel. It is expected that the second round of growth driven by the entry of industrial capital and the replacement of fundamentals will start in the second quarter.

  Huatai Securities commented on the previous hot technology stocks, saying that the size of funds flowing to science and technology has reached at least 69.9 billion this year. Newly issued partial equity public funds (technical funds account for a relatively high proportion), especially passive funds (technical ETFs, etc.) open positions.It is the direct reason that the short-term forecast continues to rise, and then gradually resumes full-scale work and the end of the peak of the allocation of new funds. It is predicted that the expansion of technology stocks may not be sustainable.

  It is worth mentioning that the initiator of the market last spring was the 5G concept. At that time, it promoted the rise of technological breakthroughs such as OLED, cloud computing, and ubiquitous electric power Internet of Things. Today, it has brought the radio and television system to life.The two major institutions in the short-term trend caused the Shanghai Index to fall 4 on March 8 last year.

4% lost 3,000 points in the tragedy.
  As if between, 1.

600 million shareholders have witnessed a script that seems to 南宁桑拿 have met. When will the 78th Shanghai Index challenge the 3000 point when it will come, whether the infrastructure stocks will enter the footsteps of the technology stocks, and whether the voices of most institutions will be effective, but this time I do n’t knowIt will not be a simple repetition of history.

China Merchants Shipping (601872): Acquisition of bulk carrier assets to resolve industry competition

China Merchants Shipping (601872): Acquisition of bulk carrier assets to resolve industry competition

Event: China Merchants Shipping announced (1) the acquisition of the original Sinotrans reduced (368).

HK) each of the bulk cargo and LNG ship assets, and also repays shareholder debts, the total transaction price is tentatively set at 65.

7 ppm (2) Total asset impairment provisions for seven Capesize bulk carriers and seven general cargo ships are equivalent to RMB 5.

400000000.

Resolving competition in the same industry, increasing the share of bulk cargo.

The cash acquisition has resolved the company’s expected competition with Sinotrans.

With reference to the 2018 interim report of Sinotrans, the company has 38 bulk carriers and 25 leased capacity. After the asset acquisition, the company will add Panamax bulk carriers to achieve full coverage of bulk carriers.

We consider bulk asset acquisitions to be relatively neutral.

The dry bulk sector has been repairing at the bottom since the bottom of the 2016 cycle. In 2019, the BDI shift was affected by the dam break of Vale, but the overall average was close to 2018.

In terms of market outlook, the current supply of new bulk carriers under construction accounts for 10% of supply orders at the lowest level in history. The demand side is expected to benefit from the resumption of Sino-US grain trade. The risk of a decline in the cycle as a whole is small, and iron ore is bound to be upward.Demand for coal and grain.

Impairment of bulk assets reduces the cost burden.

The Capesize vessels delivered by the company in 2011-12 and some of the general cargo ships belonging to the former Changhang International (now Shanghai Minghua), due to the relatively old age, the new ship construction cost is higher than the current level with a certain amount of impairment.

We have calculated that the oil tanker assets are substantially impaired, and the oil tanker ship assets exceed the replacement cost.

After the assets are impaired, the break-even line of dry bulk assets is reduced, and the cost burden is reduced.

The proportion of LNG ship holdings increased and profits increased.

China Merchants Shipping holds 50% of CLNG shares and 25 of the 5 LNG ships acquired this time.

5% of Sinotrans’s original joint venture with CLNG and Dynagas.

After the completion of the acquisition, China Merchants Shipping’s shareholding ratio for this part of the ship will range from 13% to 38.

5%, investment income increased.

Adjust earnings forecast and maintain “overweight” rating.

(1) Taking into account the current assets5.

400 million impairment.

(2) Affected by the acquisition, the number of operating days for the 2019-2021 LNG ship equity increased by 452, 470, and 470 days, and the investment income increased by 1.

26, 1.

32, 1.

32 billion.

(3) After the sanctions, some ships in CLNG were suspended. We originally scheduled CLNG in Q4 2019 to be 200 million less than the non-sanctioned state, but the recovery was better than expected. We raised the abnormal damage to 0 in 2019.

5 billion.

(4) Although the bulk part has increased in volume, it is still at the edge of the break-even line. As a precautionary measure, calculate the break-even part.

In summary, the company’s net profit attributable to its parent is expected to reach 16 in 2019-2021.

900 million, 49.

1 billion, 70.

200 million (previous forecast was 19.

8 billion, 47.

8 billion, 68.

800 million, corresponding to the company’s single ship TCE33518, 50,000, 65,000 US dollars / day).

Risk reminder: US crude oil exports are less than expected, the economic growth rate exceeds the importing country’s destocking cycle, 深圳桑拿网 new ship orders have risen sharply, and orders under construction account for more than 20%.

China Tonghao (688009): Steady growth in line with expectations

China Tonghao (688009): Steady growth in line with expectations

Investment Highlights Performance Summary: The company released its semi-annual report for 2019 and achieved revenue of 205.

100 million (+8.

5%), net profit attributable to mother 22四川耍耍网.

700 million (+14.

3%), deducting non-net profit 20.

600 million (+ 7%).

The company’s July performance forecast shows that it expects net profit attributable to mothers to be 21 in 2019H1.

1?
twenty two.

800 million, net profit after deducting non-attribution to 20.

6?
twenty two.

500 million, semi-annual results in line with expectations.

  Rail transit business develops better and profitability improves.

The company’s 2019H1 rail transit control system business revenue was 153.

200 million (+15.

8%), with a gross margin of 27% (+1).

2pp), the general contracting business revenue was 51.

600 million (-8.

7%), with a gross profit margin of 12.

3% (-0.

8pp), showing that the better development of rail transit business fully guarantees the company’s overall revenue to grow steadily.

The company’s overall gross profit margin for 2019H1 is 23.

3% (+1.

3pp), the increase in profitability is mainly due to the rapid growth of rail transit business with higher gross profit margin.

The company’s expenses during the 2019H1 period9.

9% (+1.

2pp), of which selling expenses are 1.

8% (+0.

7pp), administrative expenses5.

3% (+0.

3pp, excluding R & D), R & D expenses2.

8% (-0.

1pp), financial expenses budget -0.

01% (+0.

3pp).

  Railway orders increased rapidly, and performance growth was guaranteed.

In 2018, the company’s railway control system business income was 184.
600 million (+10.

6%), benefiting from the high level of new railways and the upgrade of high-speed rail control systems, the new contract signed in 2018 was 250.
800 million (+44.

8%).

The 2019H1 company gradually increased the size of newly signed contracts by 340.

200 million (+5.

3%).

Among them, the newly signed contract value in the railway field was 164.

600 million (+30.

1%), 54 new contracts were signed in the field of urban rail transit.

600 million (-9.

9%), the amount of new contracts signed in overseas areas4.

300 million (+15.

6%), the total value of new contracts signed in general contracting and other fields is 116.

700 million (-11.

7%).

New contracts in the railway sector with relatively high gross profit margins have grown rapidly, ensuring the company’s subsequent performance has grown steadily.

  Earnings forecasts and investment advice.

The company has ample railway orders in hand, and the newly signed contracts have grown rapidly, ensuring a steady growth in subsequent performance.

Expected company 2019?
In 2021, the EPS will be 0.

37/0.

43/0.

51 yuan, corresponding to the current market value of PE is 27/23/19 times, no rating is given for the time being.

  Risk warning: Rail assets investment is less than expected risk.

BT, BOT and other projects’ policies, benefits and repayments, project exits and other risks.

The progress of the investment project construction and the completion of production may be less than the expected risk.

Weixing New Materials (002372): Under pressure temporarily to actively respond to municipal and retail challenges

Weixing New Materials (002372): Under pressure temporarily to actively respond to municipal and retail challenges

Event On October 29, 2019, Weixing New Materials released the third quarter report of 2019, and the company achieved total operating revenue of 31 in the first three quarters of 2019.

20 ppm, an increase of 5 in ten years.

15%; net profit attributable to mother 6.

92 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.

86%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother 6.

52 ppm, a ten-year increase4.

46%.

In terms of quarters, the company’s Q1 / Q2 / Q3 single-quarter revenue in 2019 was 7 respectively.

82, 13.

24, 10.

14 trillion, a year of change of +17.

89%, +8.

16%, -6.

08%; net profit attributable to mothers is 1.

30, 3.

13, 2.

49 trillion, a year of +21 changes.

01%, +12.

55%, -7.

16%; net profit after deduction is 1 respectively.

20, 2.

96, 2.

3.6 billion, change by +16 each year.

17%, +14.

93%, -10.

38%.

The company’s third quarter performance was lower than expected.

Our analysis and judgment: Q3 single quarter revenue increased, municipal engineering, retail performance under pressure. From the perspective of sub-channels, from January to September 2019, the operating income of retail and municipal engineering declined, and the operating income of construction engineering increased.More than 40%.

From the perspective of product categories, on January 9, 2019, the growth rate of operating income of PPR pipelines 杭州桑拿养生会所 declined, the operating income of PE pipelines was basically flat, and the operating income of PVC pipelines increased by about 20%.

Under the pressure of the company’s performance, the company continued to optimize its marketing model and gradually implemented “retail, engineering two-wheel drive”. Through the retail business, it actively expanded the potential market to deal with the unfavorable situation of low demand and intensified competition.Adjust and transform, grasp the development of construction engineering.

The company’s municipal engineering and retail performance are under pressure, and it is expected that the performance in 2020 will improve.

During the period, the expense ratio increased, and the gross profit margin increased slightly. In the first three quarters of 2019, the gross profit margin was 46.

80%, compared with 47 in the same period in 2018.

30% down 0.

50pct.

The net profit for the first three quarters of 2019 was 22.

23%, compared with 22 in the same period in 2018.

07% increase to 0.16%.

Expenses for the company’s period in the third quarter of 201921.

12%, compared with 21 in the same period in 2018.

26% dropped slightly by 0.

14pct is basically an increase in the R & D expense ratio.

Of which selling expenses are 13.

42%, a decrease of 0 from the same period in 2018.

11 points; administrative costs 5.

14%, an increase of 0 compared with the same period in 2018.

03pct; R & D expenses 3.

29%, an increase of 0 compared with the same period in 2018.

23pct; Finance Expenses Expenses -0.

73%, a decrease of 0 compared with the same period in 2018.

At 29pct, the decrease in the financial expense ratio was mainly due to the increase in bank deposit income. Accounts receivable increased slightly. The operating and investment cash flow improved in the first three quarters of 2019.

1.2 billion, compared with 3 at the end of the first half of 2019.

06 ppm increased by 1.

96% in the first three quarters of 2018
.

05 ppm increased by 2.

00%.

The advance payment is 1.

100,000 yuan, compared with 0 in the same period in 2018.

7.7 billion increased by 42.

77%, the increase was mainly due to the increase in prepayments for raw materials.

Reported company operations, improved cash flow from investment activities, reduced financing cash flow.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s net cash flow from operating activities was 5.

51 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.

15%; net cash flow from investing activities is 5.

66 ppm, an increase of 206 in ten years.

47%, initially to recover part of the investment and purchase of wealth management products in Xinjiang Dongpeng Heli Equity Investment Partnership (Limited Partnership); the net cash flow from financing activities was -7.

870,000 yuan, a decrease of 30 per year.

00%, mainly due to increased dividends.

Investment suggestion: Due to the short-term fluctuations in the company’s performance, we expect the company’s operating income to be 48 in 2019-2020.

88, 55.

15 ppm, a six-year increase of 6.

96%, 12.

83%; net profit attributable to mother is 10.

35, 11.

80 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.

83%, 13.
96%; corresponding PE is 20 respectively.
4X, 17.

9X, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk factors: New business expansion is less than expected, raw material prices have risen sharply, and industry competition has intensified.

Soochow Securities (601555) first half of 2019 performance review: self-operated elastic release of net profit increased significantly

Soochow Securities (601555) first half of 2019 performance review: self-operated elastic release of net profit increased significantly

The company’s net profit exceeded the growth rate and temporarily ranked first among listed securities companies.

In the first half of 2019, the company’s operating income was 26.

$ 7.5 billion, +74 per year.

17%; net profit attributable to mother is 7.

5 billion yuan, +2758 per year.

33%; net profit after deducting non-attribution is 7.

4.8 billion yuan, +3613 per year.

28%, the 青岛夜网 company’s net profit quality is excellent.

The growth of the company’s net profit was mainly contributed by credit business, investment income and brokerage business.

The growth rate of the brokerage business exceeded the overall industry.

In the first half of 2019, the company continued to focus on the general principle of “strong headquarters, strong command, strong products, and cost reduction”, optimizing the service system, strengthening the product system, improving the operating system, improving the compensation and assessment incentives, and steadily promoting the transformation of the brokerage business.And development.

In the first half of the year, the company’s net income from trading in securities business was 5.

5.4 billion, +25 per year.

94%, higher than the overall growth rate of the industry22.

06%, during the period, the agency transaction volume (A shares + funds) was 18,027.

9.3 billion, an annual increase of 36.

65%.

The growth rate of investment banking business was lower than the industry as a whole.

The establishment of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the trial registration system brought new development potential to the investment banking business.

The company takes advantage of the clustering of science and technology enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta region, establishes a science and technology enterprise project resource bank, strengthens the science and technology board project reserve, and helps science and technology enterprise development.

In the first half of 2019, the company successfully completed the Hongta Securities IPO project and raised funds12.

The Bank of Suzhou, which was co-sponsored, was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on August 2 and raised funds of 26.

2 trillion; in the first half of the year, the company took the lead in obtaining business qualifications for performing credit protection instruments and successfully created the country’s first batch of double-creation debt credit protection instruments.

In the first half of the year, the company completed the issuance of 4 single and double creation bonds and the nation’s first single steel company supply chain ABS, completed 34 corporate bonds and raised 369 funds.

7.6 billion yuan.

In the first half of the year, the company’s securities underwriting and sponsorship business net income2.

3.7 billion, +4 per year.

82%, the growth rate is lower than the overall growth rate of the industry26.

66%.

Self-employed business has increased significantly every year.

In terms of equity securities investment, the securities market performed well in the first half of 2019. The company’s equity investment business accurately grasped market trends, and in-depth excavation of value-chips with strong anti-risk capabilities in areas such as large finance and large consumption, and achieved relatively stable overallReturn on investment.

For fixed-income securities, the bond market trend in the first half of the year was affected by internal and external factors, and the overall amplitude fluctuated. The corporate bond investment business focused on risk prevention, and traded closely following changes in interest rates and debt to stabilize investment income.

In the first half of the year, the company’s net investment income (net investment income-investment income to associates and joint ventures + fair value changes) was 9.

It reached $ 8.7 billion in 1985.

twenty three%.

The decline in asset management business was lower than the industry as a whole.

With the new regulations on asset management, regulatory policies such as the bank’s wealth management subsidiaries have been implemented, transforming and actively managing the future development of the business.

Since 2019, the company has strengthened its high-net-worth customers and institutions to develop customized products, while maintaining its inventory, and focusing on private placement of FOF and bond fixed income products.At the end of June 2019, the total scale of the company’s entrusted management was 1,253.

7.3 billion, down 30 a year.

06%, of which, the proportion of the company’s asset management business initiative management scale increased to 24 on June 30, 2019.

54%, the active management capacity has been steadily improved.

The company conducts fund management business through its holding subsidiary Soochow Fund. As of the end of June 2019, the total assets managed by Soochow Fund were 688.

2.4 billion yuan, of which the size of public funds is 172.

6.5 billion yuan, the size of the special account assets is 485.

4.2 billion yuan, the subsidiary’s special assets scale 30.

1.7 billion.

In the first half of 2019, the company’s net income from the client’s asset management business was zero.

8.5 billion per year -3.

06%, lower than the industry’s overall -8.

32%.

Credit business turned losses into profits.

In the first half of 2019, through the market recovery and the gradual improvement of corporate credit, the credit risk of the securities industry’s stock pledge and margin trading business was effectively alleviated.

In the first half of 2019, the scale of the company’s credit transaction business gradually decreased, and the average performance guarantee ratio of self-owned stock pledges continued to increase.

As of the end of June 2019, the total size of credit transaction business was 191.

USD 7.9 billion, of which 97 is the balance of margin financing and securities lending business.

7 trillion, the balance of stock pledge business 93.

USD 7.5 billion with a contracted repurchase business balance of 0.

3.4 billion.

In the first half of the year, the company achieved net interest income2.

0.6 billion, net interest income for the same period in 2018 was -3.

4.3 billion yuan, turning losses into profits.

Investment Advice.

The company’s net profit attributable to its mother in the first half of 2019 is +2758 per year.

33%, in addition to the low base in the same period last year, credit business, investment income and brokerage business contributed to the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers.Increase in the first half of the year.

As of August 16, 2019, the company’s PB was 1.

32 times, the highest level in history; the company’s EPS in 2019/2020 is expected to be 0.

61 yuan / 0.

71 yuan, the corresponding closing price PE on August 16, 2019 were 14 respectively.

90 times / 12.

80 times, we give a recommendation rating.

risk warning.

The economy exceeded expectations, the stock market fell sharply, and the Sino-US trade friction worsened.

担心俄罗斯以牙还牙?罗马尼亚外长不在莫斯科转机

担心俄罗斯以牙还牙?罗马尼亚外长不在莫斯科转机
­  俄罗斯国际文传通讯社7月30日报道称,俄罗斯副总理德米特里•罗戈津当天表示,罗马尼亚外交部长梅莱什卡努原计划在莫斯科转机前往哈萨克斯坦进行访问,却因近期罗马尼亚拒绝俄罗斯飞机进入其领空一事,为以防万一,更改行程,选择了另一条路线。­  报道称,7月27日,俄副总理罗戈津率领的俄政府代表团乘坐俄罗斯西伯利亚航空公司(S7)客机前往摩尔多瓦首都基希讷乌,参加纪念德涅斯特河沿岸维和行动25周年活动时,罗马尼亚以俄副总理罗戈津受欧盟制裁为由,拒绝客机进入罗马尼亚领空。客机随后因燃油不足被迫降落在白俄罗斯首都明斯克。­  罗戈津随后谴责罗马尼亚的行为是针对摩尔多瓦总统的不友好行动,且危及涉事客机上160名乘客的生命安全。俄罗斯外交部也在28日谴责罗马尼亚此举为蓄意挑衅,将严重损害俄罗双边关系。俄外交部呼吁,罗马尼亚政府应对彻查此事,并向俄方做出相应的解释。­  另据俄新社7月29日报道,俄公正俄罗斯党副主席奥列格•尼洛夫提议,在罗马尼亚未就罗戈津被拦一事做出合理解释之前,禁止所有罗马尼亚飞机进入俄罗斯领空。俄国家杜马议员阿列克谢•茹拉夫廖夫也认为俄罗斯必须采取回应措施。­  另据俄新社7月30日报道,罗马尼亚外交部新闻中心向俄新社解释称,罗马尼亚外交部长梅莱什卡努之所以未在莫斯科转机,是因为俄罗斯航空公司更改了航班时刻表。此外,梅莱什卡努的行程早在28日之前就已经确定,无法进行变更。【 杭州夜网论坛 记者 严翔】 责任编辑:纪玮维

Cathay Huang Yanming: Science and Technology Board will reshape China’s capital market evaluation and pricing system

Cathay Huang Yanming: Science and Technology Board will reshape China’s capital market evaluation and pricing system

Huang Yanming: The estimation of stocks is still the result of a market-based game. We cannot hope that securities analysts use a set of scientific evaluation models to solve all valuation problems in stock pricing.

  The task of the analyst is to guide expectations, and to ensure that there is no potential gap between the issuer, investment banking business unit and investors.

  ⊙ Reporter Wang Xiaoyu ○ Editor Zhu Yin At the “51st China Capital Market Advanced Symposium and Shanghai Stock Exchange Directors Forum”, Huang Yanming, director of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, delivered a keynote speech on “How should securities research be replaced by science and technology enterprises”.

  Huang Yanming said that due to the complexity of the science and technology board company’s estimation, the investment report of the science and technology board company in accordance with the prescribed specifications should use more than 3 estimation methods to verify each other to convert the interval; there may be noProblems such as profit and overlapping of soft assets, and traditionally common estimation methods such as price-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio may sometimes be difficult to apply. It is necessary to newly establish some estimation methods that are in line with the characteristics of science and technology board companies and the basic theory of stock value.

But at the same time, he also predicted that stock estimates will ultimately be the result of market games. With the requirement that securities analysts come up with a scientific and reasonable evaluation model, it is better to focus on building a market-oriented formation mechanism for issue pricing.

  Sci-Tech Board will rebuild the brokerage business process Huang Yanming said at the seminar that there are two aspects of the nature of Sci-Tech board: one is the capital market serving science and technology enterprises, and the other is the trial registration system.

The science and technology board can not be simply understood as the innovation of investment banking business, but should be the re-engineering of various business processes of securities companies, which involves investment banking, brokerage, direct investment, credit and research, compliance and risk control and other alternatives.

  The direct investment business is one of the securities brokerage businesses that the Science and Technology Board has entrusted with.

According to the latest “Implementation Measures for the Issuance and Underwriting of Stocks of the Science and Technology Innovation Board”
issued by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the Science and Technology Innovation Board has implemented a follow-up investment system for relevant subsidiaries of sponsors.

  Huang Yanming’s analysis: Brokerage companies and investment and technology board companies are equivalent to bundling the brokerage’s own funds to the market.

In fact, not only the broker’s own funds, but also the issuer, the securities firm’s investment banking business unit and institutional investors, the interests of these four parties are also unified.

How to make the four of them achieve a balanced interest, the investment report written by the securities analyst in the research department plays a key guiding role.

In fact, in foreign investment banks, research departments play an important role in pricing shares.

  ”Of course, in the IPO, the analyst’s pricing accuracy, fairness, fairness, and compliance with the requirements of independence have become very important.

“Huang Yanming said.

  Science and technology board applies different evaluation methods Huang Yanming said that stock evaluation methods are divided into three categories, embedded value method, relative value method, asset value method.

General textbooks introduce more about the embedded value method and the relative value method, but they rarely deal with the asset value method.

However, some companies in the science and technology board are actually difficult to use the first two types of estimation methods, and must use the asset value method.

This will greatly test the industry judgment ability of the certificate analyst and the analysis ability of accounting and finance.

  Due to the high uncertainty of the profitability of science and technology board companies and the restructuring of “soft assets”, traditional estimation systems, such as indicators for investors such as price-earnings ratio (P / E) and price-to-book ratio (P / B)) Etc. are sometimes not applicable.

So, what kind of estimation method is applicable to science and technology board enterprises?

  Huang Yanming pointed out that, because science and technology board companies often do not have dividends or the equity-to-debt ratio is very unstable, the discounted dividend model (DDM) in the embedded value method and the free cash flow discounted model (FCFE) cannot be used in practice.

The discounted free cash flow model (FCFF) of the enterprise is based on the cash flow of the entire enterprise rather than the cash flow (or even profit) of shareholders, so its applicability is improved; the economic value added model (EVA) reduces uncertaintyThe proportion of excessive final value is also applicable to the science and technology board company.

  Regarding the common price-earnings ratio, price-to-book ratio, and relative indicators such as PEG (PE / G), EV / EBITDA, which are commonly used in the relative value method, everyone can use it in the relative value method, but there are two problems to be solved in use:The first is to have relevant financial data that can be compared. For example, the replacement of the price-earnings ratio method is that the company must have a profit, but some science and technology board companies may not have a profit. The second is that it is difficult to find a comparable group of companies.

The liquidation value method in the asset value method may not be applicable at the beginning of the listing of the science and technology board, and the applicable replacement method should be the replacement cost method.

  Expert Huang Yanming, because the relative value method 杭州桑拿 is relatively low, Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute has stipulated that for the valuation of science and technology board companies, it must replace FCFF, EVA and one of the valuation methods based on the replacement cost method.Only when there are more than two other estimation methods can the estimation be fully estimated.

  At the meeting, Huang Yanming rejected two relative estimation methods of technology companies that have been popular in overseas markets. One is the market-to-sales ratio (P / SPS, SPS is the replacement), and the other is the single-client equity value (equity value / U, U is the number of users).

Huang Yanming believes that both the sales revenue and the number of customers belong to the enterprise, not the shareholders.

Therefore, Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute has transformed 南京桑拿网 these two stock value methods, transforming the P / SPS into an enterprise value / revenue model (EV / S); transforming the equity value / U into an enterprise value / customer.Quantity (EV / U).

Among them, the enterprise value (EV) is the sum of equity value, debt value, and minority shareholder value. After calculating the enterprise value, the debt value and minority shareholder value are deducted, and the balance is the equity value generated by the stock valuation.

  Huang Yanming also suggested that the replacement cost method is an estimation method that looks easy but is actually difficult, which requires analysts to consider the replacement of significant assets and the replacement of hidden assets to replace the organization of the company.Value, the value of human capital, etc.

In addition, it is necessary to consider how to recapitalize expenditures that have been expensed in accordance with the principle of caution in accounting statistics.

  Guide all parties to improve market efficiency, but the above stock valuation method has rigorous scientific reasoning steps and a solid accounting and financial basis. However, according to Huang Yanming, stock valuation is both a scientific and philosophical issue, as well as an academic issue and a game issue.The estimated value model is not the more detailed, the better the quantification, the key is to be understood and accepted by people.

  ”The characteristics of the game during the IPO pricing stage are obvious.

The pricing of new shares depends on the expectations of the issuer, the expectations of the institutional investors participating in the inquiry, and the overall economic and financial market environment and the balance of the interests of the sponsoring parties to all parties.

Huang Yanming believes that the microstructure of the capital market investors and the issuance system will also have a significant impact on the pricing results of stocks.

  Huang Yanming further stated that everyone is looking for the precise intrinsic value of the enterprise. “But the model can only help us analyze, but it can’t accurately locate it.

“Estimation of stocks is ultimately the result of a market-based game. We cannot hope that securities analysts use a set of scientific estimation models to solve all valuation problems in stock pricing.  ”The task of the analyst is to guide expectations, and there is no potential gap in the expectations of the issuer, investment banking business unit and investors.

If the gap is too large, it will hurt the efficiency of the capital market in allocating social resources.

“Huang Yanming is outstanding.
.

Tower Group (002233) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Supply and demand pattern is good, high profit, high dividends, low valuations

Tower Group (002233) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Supply and demand pattern is good, high profit, high dividends, low valuations

The company’s performance increased by 139 in 2018.

0%, EPS1.

RMB 45 On January 12, 2018, the company realized operating income of 66.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 45.

3%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

2 trillion, with an increase of 139.

0%, budget benefit 1.

45 yuan; the company’s revenue in the fourth quarter was 21.

1 trillion, with an increase of 38.

5%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies4.

7 trillion, with an increase of 119.

4%.

Profit distribution plan: 4 for every 10 shares.

3 yuan cash dividend (including tax), the cash dividend rate is as high as 58.

8%.

The sales scale, operating performance and dividend rate of the first-tier companies are reported to reach record highs.

Volume and price are rising, and the company with the best historical profitability report has a comprehensive gross profit margin of 40.

4%, an increase of 10 every 17 years.

8 units; sales rate, management rate and financial rate are 1.

6%, 4.

9%, -0.

2%, 0 per year.

4, 0.

9, 0.

2 averages, period rate 6.

3%, 1 year 17 years down.

4 units.

The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin in the fourth quarter was 38.

5%, an increase of 6 every 17 years.

9 units; sales rate, management rate and financial rate are 2.

0%, 7.

9%, -0.

2%, a decade change of -0.

3, 0 and 0.

2 digits, period rate is 9.

7%, a decrease of 0 every 17 years.

1 unit.

In 18 years, the company’s cement sales reached a ceiling of 1795, an 南宁桑拿 increase of 15 per year.7%, mainly contributed by the first phase of the Wenfu serial port line that was put into production at the end of 17 years.

In addition, benefiting from stricter environmental protection, coordinated peak production by large enterprises and the suspension of Xijiang in the fourth quarter of the season, the price of cement in South China rose by 18 years.

9%, the company’s profitability improved to the historical best level, net sales margin reached 26.

0%.

The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Greater Bay Area merges with the revitalization of the eastern Guangdong countryside, and the regional supply and demand pattern is better.
On the power supply side, except for the completion of the second phase of the Tower Wenfu access line project, which was completed and put into operation at the end of 19 years, there will be no other supplementary production capacity in Guangdong Province in the future. In 19 years, the environmental protection governance in the southern region will gradually increase.The pattern will also continue.

As the cement leader in the Pearl River Delta region, the company’s market share is expected to further increase.

Profit forecast and investment recommendations The internal cement supply and demand pattern in the region is improving, and the company’s business mix business is growing rapidly. The Wenfu clinker insertion line project will continue to contribute to product sales growth, and high profit levels will continue.

In addition, the company’s dividend yield is as high as 7%, which is estimated to have a safety margin.

Maintain the company’s 19-20 year earnings forecast EPS 1.

96, 2.

16 yuan, plus EPS 2 for the 21-year profit forecast.

38 yuan, maintaining a target price of 14.

00 yuan corresponds to about 7 times the PE level in 2019, with a “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: The demand performance is less than expected, and the risk of a sharp rise in prices of raw materials and coal.